Do You Think You Have a Gambling Problem?

http://www.football-data.co.uk/gamblingproblem.php

  1. All games of chance, including all casino games, will result in losses in the long run, because of the advantage the casino has (its profit margin). In the short run, luck can deliver profits to the gambler, but the law of large numbers means that the more wagers you place the more good and bad luck will cancel each other out. Your long term loss expectancy will be governed by the size of the house edge for that particular game and that particular casino. Consequently, anyone betting at a casino should do so recognising it is just a bit of fun and that any winnings that they might accrue will be solely the result of good fortune and nothing else.(任何赌博游戏从长远来看总是输钱的。短期可能会获利,但是只要投入的数目足够大,赢钱和输钱概率是相同的,而庄家却可以利用庄家优势以及游戏戏规则来让你输钱。所以任何玩赌博游戏的人都必须认识到,赢钱只不过是运气好而已)
  2. Mixed games of skill and chance, including sports betting and poker, offer some element of a long term advantage to the player, not available to those betting at a casino. However, again because the bookmaker or poker room imposes a house edge (the size dependent on the game) most players will find themselves at a significant disadvantage. Furthermore, because sports betting and poker are what are known as "winner takes all" markets, only the most skilled players will actually be able to accrue any profit over the long term. Like casino games, the law of large numbers will mean that good and bad luck gradually cancel each other out as more and more bets are made leaving only a few percent of players who are capable of generating a profit. If you don't know whether you are one of those players (and you should never assume that you are unless you have put in the work to prove that you are), then like for casino games, you should see sports betting and poker as a bit of fun.(和赌博游戏不同的是,如果这个游戏参杂一些技术成分的话,那么会为参与者提供优势,但是庄家优势依然会对大部分参与者不利。因为这个游戏是赢者获得所有,所以对于专业选手来说长远来看是可以获利的。如果不确定自己是不是专业选手,那么最好先认为自己不是)
  3. Treating betting as a bit of fun (and frankly treating it as a profession too) means the following:
    • Never bet what you cannot afford to lose, that is what will materially and emotionally affect you and those around you.(不要赌上会让你输掉裤子的钱)
    • Never chase losses, that is never increase stakes for new bets with a view to winning back what you have already lost. This type of money management is the fast track to ruin and is completely and utterly mathematically flawed.(不要想赢回输掉的钱)
    • If you are not skilled enough to find a profitable advantage over the long term, no tinkering with the way you place your bets, that is to say your staking or money management, can ever turn a losing system into a winning one. People who say it's possible are either lying, in denial or stupid. (不要随便下注)
    • Always understand that luck is not the same thing as skill, and unless you know how to tell the difference between the two, you will almost certainly find yourself on the losing side in the long run. The vast majority of people who win in the short term believe that their skill as a forecaster must have had something to do with it. Unfortunately the vast majority of these people are wrong, and only find out that they were wrong once they have lost all that they had previously won and more. (不要混淆运气和技术。大部分人赢钱时候认为是自己的技术在起作用,直到完全输掉之前赢的部分才承认自己的技术不好)
comments powered by Disqus